How The Bizarre Season Broke the Conventional Coach of the Year Mold.
Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.
On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.
Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite coaches.
Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.
Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.
The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.
In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!
Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.
The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.
After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.
The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record
Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.
Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.
Still
